Thinking about it more, the NFL being so random means that any predictions have to be couched in probabilities. For example, the Saints were favored against the Bucs, but four turnovers later mean that the Bucs are advancing. If they were to play that game 10 or 100 times, how many times would the Bucs get those four turnovers? That’s the part I’m unclear on.
Similarly, it’s fascinating to see how the narratives quickly form. Drew Brees, throwing three interceptions, has his legacy at stake, but Tom Brady (the GOAT, admittedly) moves on, even though the defense carried the load.